At a glance
Market Pulse
What could move it
Alerts
Ask Claude
Copies a Bitcoin-partner prompt with the rules (bills first, no leverage without a rule, a plan for every trade) and the app's latest data: price, Fed odds and calendar, yields, dollar, liquidity, funding, options, corporate buyers, on-chain and news. Paste it into a new Claude chat and add your question at the end.
Verified build
Indicator check
Drivers right now
Open positions
Long ladder
Same ladder on every account size
Tap a row to switch accounts. Sizes are rounded to Kraken's 0.0001 BTC step.
Rules, as backtested
- Place the market order and the limit orders on the day the alert fires.
- Cancel any limit order that has not filled after 14 days.
- When TP1 fills, move the stop to your average entry.
- Close whatever is left on day 90.
Liquidation is approximate (isolated margin, 0.5% maintenance); check your exchange's calculator. Position size comes from the risk setting; leverage only changes the margin you post and how close liquidation sits.
When this ladder paid
1R = the planned loss at the stop. Baseline funding is charged and fills are conservative. Weekly starts overlap, so there are fewer independent trades than the counts suggest.
Alert history
What the testing says
Tap Simple at the top again for the charts, tables and every test.
Price, averages and RSI
Market structure
Does structure improve the model's trades? (tested)
Which indicators earned a place
Short setups split by indicator (avg R per trade)
Trades started every other day inside a short setup. Starts overlap, so there are fewer independent trades than the counts suggest.
Long setups split by indicator (avg R per trade)
Indicators on their own, every day (avg R per trade)
The same ladder started on every other day from 2016, with no score. A = Aug 2016–2022, B = 2023–Jul 2026.
How much of this could be luck?
Average result per trade, with a 90% range
If the range crosses zero, the data can't rule out "no edge". Ranges come from resampling 90-day blocks of trades, because overlapping trades aren't independent.
The last column asks whether a rule beats the best result you'd expect from that many tries of pure luck. With only about 10 to 26 independent trades per rule, nothing here can clear that bar yet. More live trades are the only real fix, which is why the app keeps logging every plan.
Every idea counted (the trial ledger)
A lower bound: small tweaks made while building (thresholds, weights, ladder spacing) weren't all logged, so the true count is higher.
Indicator screen after correction (best 10 of the screen)
Do costs eat the edge?
Market-state score
Nine factors, each with a direction learned only from 2018–22, combined into one score. The bars show what Bitcoin did over the next 90 days in each fifth of the score during 2023–26, data the model never saw while being built.
Factor readings
When it last looked like this
Model scorecard
Closest historical price shapes
Matched periods
Live positioning
Do these predict the next week? (tested)
Where the ladder is priced
Kraken multi-collateral futures: $1 price tick, 0.0001 BTC size step, 1% initial and 0.5% maintenance margin below $1M notional (up to 50x in the app). Kraken margins positions across your account by default, so your real liquidation price depends on the whole account balance; the app shows a conservative per-position estimate.
Leverage and positioning
What moves with Bitcoin
Correlation from −1 (opposite) to +1 (together). "Lead" tests whether last week's move predicts this week's; it is near zero everywhere, so these confirm moves rather than forecast them.
Sources and method
Calendar
Headlines
Global markets
"With BTC" is the correlation of daily moves over the last month, from −1 (opposite) to +1 (together). Yields show the change in percentage points.
Rates and the curve
Timing: weekdays and Fed days
What traders bet the Fed does
Each market's prices, scaled to add up to 100%. A read on expectations, not a forecast: surprises against these odds are what move prices.
What the big traders are doing
Data: Hyperliquid's public blockchain data (no account, no key), plus Coinversa Pulse when its key is set. One exchange, not the whole market. Top traders include funds that hedge coins they own, so net short isn't automatically a bet against Bitcoin.
Fear & Greed
Crypto market
Leverage everywhere
Options positioning
Corporate buyers
Dollar liquidity
On-chain
Carry calculator
Orders
Funding history
Does timing it help?
What funding does and doesn't tell you
Risks
- flipFunding changes sign. On Kraken it was negative from February to April 2026, so a carry position paid instead of earning for three months. The alert tells you when the 7-day average turns negative.
- marginThe short leg loses money when Bitcoin rises, while the spot leg gains the same amount on a different account. If Bitcoin rallies hard, top up futures margin (move cash or sell a little spot and transfer it) before the short reaches its liquidation price. A liquidated short leaves you unhedged and pays a fee.
- feesEntering and exiting costs about 0.5% of the position with limit orders and 0.9% with market orders on Kraken's base tier. At the 1-year average rate that takes months to earn back, so this only pays if you hold it for a long time.
- yieldKraken's 1-year average was about 3%/yr on the position, a little less on your capital. Compare it with what cash earns in a savings account or T-bills before tying up money and taking exchange risk.
- exchangeBoth legs sit on one exchange, so an outage, withdrawal freeze or account problem hits both at once. Check that Kraken Futures is available where you live.
Research, not financial advice. The app never places orders; you place every order yourself.
Today's checks
Orders
Pass odds with this model's own trades
Trade log
Fees versus payouts
Hard rules
From your saved playbook (Oct 15). This is a checklist for your own decisions, not financial advice, and it can't see your real account: it only knows what you log here.
Kraken sync
Connected accounts
Plan and allocation
Plan backtest
Profiles compared on the same dates
Add money
Holdings
Buy ladder
Transactions
Whole-wealth check
Satellite checks
Rules this plan follows
Your pay
Taxes and deductions
State tax: enter your state's rough rate (Texas, Florida, Tennessee and a few others have none). The federal estimate uses the 2026 brackets, standard deduction, child tax credit, the new overtime deduction, Social Security and Medicare.